Two premiers, two provinces, two “generational” opportunities for wealth and prosperity. Two entirely different visions of what that means. And too much stubbornness to cooperate across provincial borders.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and B.C. Premier David Eby finally hit their long-expected clash today, after Smith announced her government would push forward a new oil pipeline to the B.C. coast.
Her intention is to get a one-million-per-day bitumen pipeline project in front of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s major projects office by May, and, if he approves it, use that public vow of support to attract private proponents to take over and build the line.
“It would be optimal if a pipeline proponent had a clear path to being able to get a project approved without the need to partner with government, but that’s not the world we live in,” said Smith.
The move brought a quick rebuke from Eby.
“The problem that we have is that premier Smith continues to advance a project that is entirely taxpayer funded, has no private sector proponent, is not a real project and is incredibly alarming to British Columbians, including First Nations along the coast,” he said.
Premiers disagree on ‘generational’ project priorities
The two premiers don’t see eye-to-eye, in part because they are both myopically advocating only for the resources found in their provinces and refusing to look beyond their borders.
For Smith that means oil, of which Alberta has in abundance and B.C. has little.
“What stands before us right now is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to unlock our wealth of resources and become a world-leading energy superpower, creating lasting prosperity for generations to come,” Smith said.
For Eby that means natural gas and critical mineral mining, both of which B.C. has in abundance.
“B.C. has tens of billions of dollars of private sector projects that will deliver the wealth needed to make all Canadians better off,” he said last week.
“Projects that will create opportunity, jobs and prosperity now and for the future, we do have that generational opportunity, but we have to act to secure it right now,
Whether natural gas, oil or critical minerals are the “generational” opportunity the premiers say they are, depends on where you stand. But the most important opinion will be that of the prime minister, who has the power (in theory anyway) to override a province like B.C. and allow the Alberta pipeline to flow to the coast in the larger national interest.
Carney has so far indicated he’d rather back projects that are shovel-ready, have First Nations support and aren’t particularly contentious. But he’s also spoken of a “grand bargain” for the country where oil could flow to ports. Whether he gets to the point of bigfooting Eby out of the way to pursue that “generational” opportunity, remains to be seen.
‘There is no project,’ says Eby
Not helping matters has been B.C.’s convoluted position on the issue. Eby has been sending mixed messages for months, saying at first that he was open to a conversation on a pipeline if Alberta advanced the issue.
In May it was: “No, we’re not opposed.”
In June it was: “I think it’s a simplification and not quite right to say I’ve said no.”
In July it was: “If premier Smith can cross that hurdle of identifying a proponent and an actual project, then let’s have that conversation.”
On Wednesday, when Eby was asked to clarify his range of positions, he grew visibly angry.
“When I’ve said let’s cross that bridge when we come to it, you know, we’ll see what the premier comes up with, I’m being polite,” Eby said.
“There is no project. There is no bridge to cross, unless the Albertan government and the federal Canadian government are committing billions of taxpayer dollars to build this project, and if that is the plan, then they should be transparent about it.
“Don’t mistake my politeness for weakness on protecting our economy and our coast. Now, I hope that clears things up.”
Hardly.
PM will have to decide on tanker ban
In July, Eby blamed the whole dispute on the media.
“Sometimes I feel like the media is gathering around and chanting fight, fight, fight between us and Alberta right now,” he said. “There is no fight here now.”
Except there was. And perhaps the premier would be taken more seriously if he’d been honest about the province’s position from the start, rather than delivering overwrought messaging that was too-clever-by-half.
Eby repeated Wednesday he would oppose any move by Ottawa to lift a ban on new oil tanker traffic on the B.C. coast. Smith said she hopes Ottawa will lift that ban once her pipeline application lands before the major projects office next spring.
Whatever the federal government decides on the tanker ban will ultimately determine the viability of the project — no private proponent will want to get involved in building a pipeline if they aren’t assured they can ship the final product from the coast.
All of which puts a lot of pressure on Carney to make the definitive call by next spring. And in the meantime, Smith and Eby will squabble. Because it was always going to end up this way.