With the two major parties locked in a dead heat, one B.C. pollster says there’s a real possibility several independent MLAs may get elected next month in rural and northern BC.
That has some political activists welcoming the prospect of former BC United MLAs-turned Independents forming a centre-right bloc and holding the balance of power in a minority legislature.
Mario Canseco of Research Co. says his company’s polling in northern BC, “presents a unique conundrum.” The BC Conservatives lead the NDP by 10 percentage points in the north, “but we find 16 per cent of decided voters who would support other parties or Independent candidates.”
Independents usually face an uphill battle, given their lack of party platform, name recognition, organization, and money. In the last 75 years, only Vicki Huntington in Delta South, a well-known activist and former city councillor, has been elected as an Independent.
But this election is different in that five Independent candidates are former BC United MLAs. They found themselves on the outside when leader Kevin Falcon halted the party’s campaign in August and threw his support behind the BC Conservatives.
Many United MLAs, candidates, and supporters felt betrayed.
At the time, MLA Mike Bernier in Peace River South told Northern Beat he felt “blindsided” by the news and said on CBC News, he could not support the “divisive” policies of the BC Conservatives, adding that Falcon’s move was a “gut shot” for his caucus. “We didn’t know it was coming that way, and so we were definitely surprised and felt a little bit abandoned. I didn’t leave my party. My party left me.”
Now, Bernier is running as an Independent in Peace River South, along with his former caucus colleagues Dan Davies in Peace River North, Coralee Oakes in Cariboo North, Tom Shypitka in Kootenay East, and Karin Kirkpatrick in West Vancouver-Capilano. Adam Walker, the former BC NDP who was kicked out of caucus for reasons vaguely explained by NDP Leader David Eby, is the sixth MLA-incumbent running as an Independent. Walker represents the Parksville-Qualicum riding.
‘Uncharted territory’
“It does present an interesting possibility of having some Independents being elected, because they’re very well-known,” Canseco says. “So, in a way it’s uncharted territory, because usually what you have as independents are people who run for the fun of it, to who want to see where it goes, as far as knocking on doors and gathering the signatures that are required.
“But now what we have is a very different kind of Independent, because these candidates knocked on doors for weeks or months on end, got to know their communities, are very well-known because of their previous service, and are not particularly thrilled with Kevin Falcon’s unilateral decision to suspend the BC United campaign.”
Steve Thorlakson is a former mayor of Fort St. John and past president of the Union of BC Municipalities, as well as a longtime political activist in the north. With the collapse of BC United, he’s shifting his support to the two Independents running in the Peace.
“We’ve always elected independent-minded MLAs who believe that their duty is to riding and the constituents first.”
Steve Thorlakson
He says the two BC Conservative candidates in those ridings are not well known, so Dan Davies has a good shot at getting elected as an Independent in Peace River North, and Mike Bernier should win easily in Peace River South. He says Tom Shypitka in East Kootenay is also in a strong position.
“We’ve always elected independent-minded MLAs who believe that their duty is to riding and the constituents first, rather than to the party,” Thorlakson says of the Peace region.
“And so, we have reputation of having Mavericks out there, and people know that if they take an issue, certainly up here in the northeast, to their MLA that it’s going to get on somebody’s desk that can make something happen.”
The Peace has never been fertile territory for left-of-centre parties; Thorlakson says the NDP understands tax-and-spend, but not the resource economy: “You know, mining, forestry, oil and gas, and agriculture, and that gets lost and has been quiet over the years, which is tragic. Yeah, I think there’s a really strong chance of electing some middle-of-the-road conservative independents or independent conservatives.”
‘There needs to be some moderation in the mix’
Meanwhile, Mike Morris, who has retired as an MLA after representing Prince George-Mackenzie for the BC Liberals and BC United since 2013, says he was “gob-smacked” by Falcon’s decision to suspend the campaign just weeks before it was to start: “I thought the unification would be after the election, where we would sit down and come to some kind of an agreement, much like the NDP and the Greens did before they formed government.”
Morris hasn’t decided yet how he’ll vote: “I still don’t know what the hell I would do under the circumstances that we see. You know, I applaud my colleagues that have gone in the direction of running as Independents. They have looked at their own local issues and their own local support and measured everything, and they’ve made a decision based on what they think is right for their particular area at the end of the day.
“I do think that with the number of Independents that we see running, I think that they will hold the balance of power, and that the Conservatives will have to come holding cap in hand, and say, ‘Listen, we’d like to sit down and talk about a deal and supporting us moving forward, ‘ and we’ll see what happens at the end of the day.”
“With the number of Independents…running, I think that they will hold the balance of power.”
Mike Morris
Morris says B.C. is not a “far right extreme province”, and he’s troubled by the views of some of the BC Conservative candidates. “There needs to be some moderation in the mix here.” He believes BC United offered that balance, and he hopes the Independents can start to build a new, moderate movement.
Opportunity for renewal
In Nelson, meanwhile, longtime political activist Stephen Harris shares that view. He held many senior positions in former Premier Gordon Campbell’s Liberal government, including working as a speech writer in the premier’s office. He was saddened by the sudden folding of the party for which he and others had worked so hard: “It was surprising and disappointing to see a party disappear that fully, that quickly, as opposed to finding a way to modify positions, to become relevant to voters.”
Harris says the collapse of BC United may also present an opportunity for renewal: “There’s a strong appetite in B.C. for a moderate, responsible, slightly right of centre, fiscally conservative, socially Liberal party. That’s my home. That’s where I want to be. And so, I need that party, and I don’t have that party right now.”
“There’s a strong appetite in B.C. for a moderate, responsible, slightly right-of-centre, fiscally conservative, socially Liberal party.”
Stephen Harris
Meanwhile, pollster Mario Canseco says some of these undecided voters may not make up their minds until election day draws to a close.
They may ultimately gravitate towards electing a government and look beyond their constituency: “If in the final stages, people go, ‘Now, you know what? I don’t want the NDP to get in. And I think the safest option would be to stick with the Conservatives.’ Or the other way around, ‘I would like to see continuity with the government.'”