British Columbia’s housing market in early 2026 is best described as soft but stabilizing on the ownership side and noticeably improving for renters. Elevated inventory, weak sales, and high carrying costs keep resale activity subdued, while a surge in purpose-built rental completions has pushed vacancy rates to multi-decade highs and cooled rent growth. New home construction remains elevated by historical standards but is slowing, and affordability challenges persist despite recent gains.
The market entered 2026 with buyer-friendly conditions in many areas. January 2026 MLS® sales totalled just 3,314 units province-wide — down 22.9% year-over-year and the second-weakest January since 2016. The average residential sale price fell 1.9% to $924,239. Active listings rose 5.6% to 32,626, creating a balanced-to-buyer-leaning market (sales-to-active-listings ratio well below long-term norms). Benchmark prices (which strip out compositional shifts) are down in most urban centres, reflecting high condo inventories and cautious buyers facing mortgage renewals at elevated rates.
Rental markets have seen the most dramatic shift. Greater Vancouver’s purpose-built apartment vacancy rate jumped to 3.7% in 2025 (highest since 1988, up from 1.6% in 2024). Greater Victoria reached 3.3% (highest since 1999). Provincial urban vacancy averaged around 3.5%, well above the 10-year norm. Turnover rents in Vancouver actually declined (2-bedroom purpose-built fell from $2,883 to $2,696), and BC posted some of Canada’s largest asking-rent drops. This is the direct result of record rental completions from the 2021–2023 building boom finally entering the market.
New supply tells a tale of two stages. The BC Housing New Homes Registry recorded 47,858 units in 2025 (up 4.7% from 2024), driven almost entirely by purpose-built rentals (25,855 units, +40%). CMHC urban starts totalled 41,532 (down 5% from 2024), with multi-family still dominating at 90%. However, the February 2026 CMHC Housing Market Outlook projects a sharp drop in starts for 2026–2027, reaching historically weak levels as high costs, weak condo presales, and moderating rental momentum bite. Completions, by contrast, continue rising and are expected to keep adding supply through 2027.
Affordability remains strained. Vancouver is still Canada’s least affordable major market, with ownership costs consuming a huge share of median income. The shift to rentals has helped lower-income renters and young households, but homeownership for first-time buyers stays elusive outside smaller centres.
History Since the 2021 Market High
The 2021–2022 period was the modern peak. Ultra-low interest rates, record population inflows, and pent-up demand drove a frenzy: BC average prices surged nearly 19% in 2021 alone. Sales volumes hit multi-year highs, multiple offers were routine, and single-family homes in desirable neighbourhoods routinely sold 20–30% over asking.
The Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate-hike cycle (2022–2023) changed everything. Mortgage rates climbed above 5%, crushing affordability and investor appetite. Prices fell ~3% in 2022 and another ~2.6% in 2023. Sales volumes collapsed. By 2024–2025 the market had largely stabilized but at levels 9–10% below the early-2022 peak. The ownership segment (especially condos) suffered most, while purpose-built rentals pivoted sharply upward thanks to federal GST rebates, provincial incentives, and municipal zoning reforms. The 2023–2025 rental construction wave is now delivering the supply relief we see in 2025–2026 vacancy data.
Looking ahead, BCREA forecasts 2026 MLS® sales rising ~12% to ~78,700 units and average prices up ~3% to $982,800, driven by pent-up demand and modestly improving affordability. CMHC sees only temporary sales gains and sharply lower starts. The big unknown is whether the existing completion pipeline plus initiatives like the DASH standardized mid-rise toolkit can sustain supply growth as new starts fade.
After the wild ride since 2021 — boom, bust, rental pivot, and now gradual stabilization — BC’s market is more balanced than at any point in the past five years. Renters are the clearest winners today; prospective buyers have more negotiating power than since 2019, but true broad-based recovery likely waits until 2027–2028 when rates, jobs, and immigration trends align more favourably.