This election, forestry votes matter like never before

Written By Geoff Russ
Published

The story of the forestry industry in British Columbia swings between historical highs of prosperity and today’s lows of punishing decay. Forestry used to be rural B.C.’s economic backbone, driving the growth of towns and sustaining the livelihoods of families and whole communities.

In 2024, forestry in B.C. is a shadow of its former self. 

Seemingly every month, there are new tales of mill closures, hundreds of lost jobs, and a gray cloud threatening more uncertainty. What used to be ribbons of thriving forestry communities can now accurately be described as a sort of “Stump Belt,” akin to the American rust belt, or the north of England, where long-dead industry once thrived. 

Whether it be forestry, other natural resources, or industrial production, blue collar workers have been hit by the brunt of the shifting global economy, leaving communities in the lurch as jobs disappear and social decay sets in. The loss of industrial and resource jobs in towns in northern B.C. creates risk for those communities, such as substance abuse and depopulation.

In Canada, unionized workers in the private sector have swung towards the political right, with Pierre Poilievre’s federal Tories being their top choice a year away from the 2025 federal election. At the provincial level in B.C., however, a provincial election is just around the corner on October 19.

Once a reliable part of the NDP’s voter coalition, the votes of unionized forestry workers are up for grabs, and there’s no telling whether the incumbent NDP government, or the BC Conservative challengers will be the beneficiaries. One thing is certain, forestry communities are desperate for any lifeline they can get. 

Decades of job losses 

Dating back almost four decades, B.C. governments of all partisan stripes, whether it be Social Credit, NDP, or Liberal, have failed to offer longstanding solutions to the slow-moving crisis in the province’s forestry sector. 

From 1996 to 2024, the Liberals and NDP jousted for power in seven elections, but regardless of who formed a government after each one, they could only manage forestry’s decline, or in the case of some policies, accelerate it. Thirty-thousand forestry jobs were lost under the BC Liberal governments, while thousands more have been lost under the NDP. 

Many factors are at play, such as the US-Canada softwood lumber dispute. The Business Council of BC’s chief economist once noted that due to forestry’s role in the B.C. economy, the province’s economic direction could be determined by the course of the U.S. housing market. 

The tariff-driven drop in exports have hit mills particularly hard, with a recent set of mill closures in Fort St. John blamed on an increase in tariffs on softwood lumber enacted by the United States. 

During the BC Liberal dynasty from 2001 to 2017, the government enacted a slew of deregulatory policies aimed at reviving the competitiveness of forestry. Critics like former Liberal MLA Mike Morris have charged that policies which allowed for “self regulation” enabled forestry companies to overharvest and underreport their final products.  

Other deregulatory policies, such as the Liberals’ decision to lift appurtenance clauses that tied timber harvests to local mills, resulted in a string of mill closures that gutted forestry-dependent families across the Stump Belt. 

The lifting of the appurtenance clauses were enacted in the name of efficiency, but it harmed the economic vitality of communities in rural B.C. that were built around forestry. 

When the NDP finally returned to power in 2017 under the leadership of John Horgan, they promised a different way of doing things. Several of these ended up being a heightened emphasis on environmental protection, especially and most controversially, deferrals on old-growth logging. 

Whatever the intention of these policies, they clashed with the economic needs and reality of forestry communities. Deferrals on old-growth logging on Vancouver Island, aimed at preserving some of B.C.’s last ancient trees, have been condemned by forestry industry advocates as only pouring fuel on the fire. 

The NDP promised to assist forestry workers in career transitions towards new industries, but those are long term solutions. In the short-term, in 2023 and 2024 thousands of forestry jobs hemorrhaged. Horgan’s successor David Eby endorsed a “value-added” forestry sector focused on manufacturing high-end wood products, instead of just exporting raw logs. 

However, high-end wood product production need substantial investments, for which neither the provincial NDP government or private industry have shown much enthusiasm. Private industry especially, expressed their uncertainty at the forestry investment climate due to the NDP’s new regulations. 

Simply put, investment into B.C. forestry is being disincentivized by new layers of regulation which are simultaneously stripping what remains of the industry. On the other hand, deregulation under previous governments resulted in more job losses, leaving forestry workers between two rocks in a hard place.  

In the Stump Belt: who will fight for forestry?

As a result of these job losses and mill closures, the Stump Belt is in a precarious position. Voters in these communities have seen both the Liberals and the NDP offer solutions that did not restore true and reliable prosperity. 

With sawmills closing their doors and empty pulp mills rusting away, forestry workers have to be asking themselves and their families: Who will fight for us? 

The rapid rise of the BC Conservatives under the leadership of John Rustad swallowed the former BC Liberal Party (which had renamed itself BC United in 2022) by appealing to conservative voters in B.C. who felt represented neither by the NDP or the more cautious, centrist BC United. 

In B.C., former NDP members who defected to Rustad stated that a similar populist, blue-collar wave is propelling the Conservatives. Rustad has framed his party as the only one willing to make the tough decisions that will reverse the decline of forestry in B.C. 

Rustad himself is a former Liberal MLA and Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation minister with a professional background in forestry, and reached out to forestry workers in a bid for their support. He criticized the NDP as out of touch with rural communities and ignoring their economic needs. 

Regardless of how true that statement is, it is certainly true that relations between the NDP and unionized resource workers have been chillier than usual in recent years. Former premier John Horgan himself received a frosty reception from a truck loggers convention on Vancouver Island in 2020. 

Furthermore, Rustad promised to streamline the permitting process to make sure that mills have access to a more reliable timber supply, an issue that has played a huge role in the forestry sector’s decline. He’s also proposed ending stumpage fees in B.C., and replacing them with a tax on the finished forestry products once they are processed. 

On the other hand, premier David Eby stated he’s “not satisfied” with the state of forestry and highlighted how his government has attempted to find a path forward for the industry. He rejected claims that his government’s policies are solely to blame, and pointed to efforts to work with forestry companies like Canfor to reach deals of access and permits, even though many of those companies opted to close their mills instead. 

Eby wants to craft a strategy that creates more jobs per tree, while protecting old growth and enforcing sustainability in the industry. In an interview with Northern Beat in 2022, NDP minister Nathan Cullen told forestry workers “we are seeking to create a more value than volume forest industry.” 

Given the NDP’s traditional ties with organized labour, they possess a home field advantage with blue-collar workers, but the state of industry under their government has still thrown their votes into the air. 

Forestry ridings could determine the balance of power 

Whatever tractions the BC Conservatives are gaining, it’s essential to note that the contest for forestry votes is far from settled. For the BC NDP, who’ve made significant gains in urban Vancouver since 2017, the upcoming election will test the viability of their coalition, which has traditionally been a workers’ party. 

It is important to note the Stump Belt is long and spans the entire province. 

The most salient of these Stump Belt ridings is North Island, comprising much of the top half of Vancouver Island, which has been an NDP stronghold since its creation, with the exception of the period between 2001 and 2005. In 2020, the NDP retained North Island by a smashing 25 points, but the polling aggregator site 338 as of Oct. 4 has the Conservatives at 47 percent to the NDP’s 42 percent. 

North Island is the location of many forestry towns like Port McNeil, where over 80 percent of the town was employed in forestry, or forestry-related industries. While much of the rest of Vancouver Island remains an NDP stronghold, ridings in the Nanaimo area are in-play. 

One of these is Nanaimo-Lantzville, where forestry and logging play big roles in the local economy, but have been subject to campaigns from conservationist activists since at least 2017. The NDP won the riding by almost 20 points in 2020, but 338 has the BC Conservative candidate leading the NDP incumbent by four points, 46 to 42. 

In southeastern B.C. in the Kootenays, the NDP have reduced old-growth logging around Kootenay Lake, located in the riding of Kootenay Central, where forestry is a significant industry. Kootenay Central will be a new riding in the 2024 election, formed out of large parts of Nelson-Creston, which has existed since 1993, and was held by the NDP since 2005. 

The pattern of NDP votes swinging right continues in Kootenay Central, which the NDP won by about 20 points in 2020, but which 338 now has just four points ahead

As a polling aggregate site, 338’s forecasts have been accurate 90 percent of the time, 6 per cent within the margin of error, and just four per cent being inaccurate outside the margin of error. For the election itself, as of Oct. 4, 338 currently has the NDP and BC Conservatives tied at 46 seats each, one short of a majority, reflecting just how much every riding counts. 

For forestry workers and communities, battered by years of mill closures and job losses, the 2024 provincial election is an opportunity to make their voices heard louder than ever.