The BC Conservatives are facing an uphill battle in the final days of the campaign as they go head-to-head with the NDP’s formidable get-out-the-vote machinery.
The shift to identifying voters and ensuring they get to the ballot box is a critical one for each party as advanced polls open and B.C. gets closer to its Oct. 19 election date.
But it’s especially critical to the Conservatives, who are attempting to court a slice of the electorate that may not usually vote.
“So I’m actually really impressed with the number of volunteers that we have had, the people that have come forward and are getting engaged in our campaign,” BC Conservative leader John Rustad told me Saturday.
“We’re also tracking, in terms of the voters that we’ve identified, hundreds of thousands of voters across the province who are interested in voting for the Conservative Party. We’re tracking them, they are coming to the polls, and we’re seeing people that are just eager.”
Conservatives sprint to identify voters
Unlike the other two more established parties, the Conservatives have had to build their voter identification infrastructure late in the game.
That’s meant contracting with companies across the country, many of whom have conservative credentials federally or from other provinces.
One company, which does work in Alberta and Ottawa, has blitzed more than two million random B.C. cell phone numbers in an attempt to identify people who might vote Conservative. Those who reply get taken to surveys for follow-up information, logged into the BC Conservative database and then directed to plantovote.ca — a website that helps supporters find local voting stations and delivers reminders.
The phone emphasis is partly a response to the fact the Conservatives didn’t have a robust way to record, catalogue and follow-up on supporters that candidates identified through traditional means, such as door knocking and sign requests. Although the BC United party had a system it had custom built for that task over years as the BC Liberals, the Conservatives did not get access to it when United folded, due to privacy and election rules.
The Conservatives did buy canvassing software, but not until late August, at which point many NDP candidates and volunteers had already been door knocking for months.
NDP and Greens have critical advantage
New Democrats had another critical advantage – they began their campaigns with old supporter lists from previous elections. That gave candidates a starting point from which to canvass, before even setting up new voter identification efforts.
The Conservatives, who have failed to organize a serious provincial campaign since 2013, had no such list of past supporters.
Even the BC Greens have lists of previous supporters, having run successful campaigns in 2013, 2017 and 2020.
The NDP also have access to a vast network of people through unions, such as the Hospital Employees’ Union, which help them mobilize get-out-the-vote volunteers.
High voter turnout ‘speaks volumes’
“There’s no question that, you know, the NDP have an advantage given that they’re a longstanding party,” said Rustad.
“They’ve built databases and lists over a long period of time. But what I’m most encouraged about at the Conservative Party of British Columbia is the fact that we’ve had a tremendous number of people who have said that they were lifelong NDP voters, but they cannot stomach the idea of David Eby and the continuing damage in B.C., which is why they’re coming over and voting for the Conservative Party.
“So I’m very encouraged. And right now, the high voter turnout in the advanced polls speaks volumes to people’s desire for change in this province.”
More voters turned out for advanced voting on Oct. 10 than in any other date in provincial history, Elections BC reported. More than 320,000 people alone voted in the first two days of advanced voting.
The Conservatives feel that’s a good sign, as high voter turnout in a change election typically benefits the challenging party, versus the incumbent.
Still, most of the polling still shows a tight, almost near-tie situation between the NDP and Conservatives. Which will mean every person the parties can coax to the polls in the last week will be important.
“We don’t have the full machine that the NDP has,” said Rustad. “But we do have a very good, dedicated machine, and I think we’re going to do a good job of being able to get our vote out.”