He won a mandate in his own right, but Premier David Eby will define his government’s approach to natural resources with its decision on the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline this spring.
Unlike the Cedar LNG project, which was initiated and implemented by his premier predecessors Christy Clark and John Horgan, the fate of the pipeline (PRGT) falls squarely in Eby’s hands. And with the current political disarray at the federal level, ongoing threats by the incoming president of the United States, and the uncertainty he’s stoking in Canada/U.S. trade negotiations, strategical support of our LNG industry has become an urgent matter of national sovereignty.
Regardless, the choice of whether to support the pipeline or not will be a litmus test of the Eby government’s intention on natural gas development.
It will reveal whether the BC NDP will uphold the Horgan government’s more balanced, pro-resource stance or align with environmental non-governmental organizations and the BC Green Party, which firmly oppose all oil and gas resource development.
The PRGT debate reveals the ongoing clash between rural and urban interests, which was dramatically demonstrated in the October provincial election. Voters in northern and rural B.C. stunned observers by rebuking the NDP and ousting their MLAs, including powerful cabinet minister Nathan Cullen, who lost the Land, Water and Resource Stewardship ministry following his defeat to a BC Conservative challenger in his Stikine riding.
For families and workers in the north, projects like PRGT pipeline are crucial to their economic well-being and the survival of their small, resource-dependent communities.
On the other hand, environmental activists and allies of the Green Party generally oppose every fossil fuel project developed in the province.
Given the tight margins of the last election, which handed Eby the barest possible majority of 47 seats – over the Conservatives’ 44 and two for the Greens – it’s easy to envision a scenario where the votes of the two Green Party MLAs in the legislature could force the government’s hand, despite the new confidence agreement signed between the NDP and the Greens.
Political fallout no matter what the decision
The PRGT decision will have damaging political consequences for the NDP government no matter which outcome his newly minted Environment minister from Haida Gwaii, Tamara Davidson, announces this spring.
The Prince Rupert pipeline, if completed, will transport natural gas from northeastern B.C. to the future Ksi Lisims LNG export facility near Prince Rupert, which is also under construction. The PRGT project and Ksi Lisims facility are supported by the government of the Nisga’a Nation, on whose territories the projects will be located.
The Nisga’a co-own the PRGT pipeline together with Western LNG, having jointly purchased it from LNG Canada in June.
Supporters of the project, like Karen Ogen, CEO of the First Nations LNG Alliance, have pointed to the potential for economic reconciliation of resource projects.
Ogen has argued that projects like Cedar LNG in Kitimat create wealth for generations of Indigenous communities by providing job training, revenue, and employment that help nations achieve economic independence.
“In LNG we are bringing forward a sustainable solution to reduce global emissions by displacing coal-fired power in Asia, while creating shared prosperity for the benefit of all,” Ogen wrote in Business in Vancouver last November.
“This is economic reconciliation at work,” she said, urging that the pipeline project represents a modern era for Indigenous opportunities and ownership. The Nisga’a Nation’s participation in the Ksi Lisims project is part of that process, demonstrating a real shift towards Indigenous equity in the resource sector, she said.
Nonetheless, some Indigenous communities, like the Gitanyow Nation, accused the BC Energy Regulator of not “adequately addressing the cumulative environmental impacts or meaningfully consulting front line Indigenous communities, and other activists have alleged contentious environmental impacts from the project.
Pipeline critics have also argued that because the PRGT environmental assessment was completed almost a decade ago, it’s outdated and fails to include modern climate realities and Indigenous perspectives.
Mixed messaging from Eby on resource development
Eby’s record so far on resource development has provided mixed messaging about what his government will decide on PRGT.
In the spring of 2023, the B.C. government disappointed critics like the Greens when it approved the Cedar LNG project, owned by the Haisla Nation. Eby himself praised the project for its groundbreaking Indigenous ownership, as well as its fully electrified facilities, which align with the province’s climate goals.
However, he has been mostly loathe to even mention other oil and gas projects and has previously opposed expansion of the industry. As well, Cedar LNG’s groundwork was laid by John Horgan and Christy Clark, who did most of the heavy lifting getting the project through the legislative and environmental approval processes.
The Prince Rupert Gas Transmission pipeline decision, on the other hand, will require Eby to make the hard upfront decision to green or red-light the project, casting it as a bellwether for his government’s resource policy.
The results of the 2024 election will almost certainly factor into Eby’s decision calculus.
Judging by the decimation of his candidates in rural and northern B.C., British Columbians were clearly dissatisfied with the BC NDP government’s performance, including its approach to resource development. Exurban and rural voters are demanding more robust support for industries like LNG, mining, and forestry.
Instead, the NDP have become the party of urban and suburban B.C., with a voter base strongly supportive of environmental commitments.
Promises made by the BC Conservative Opposition to scrap the carbon tax and streamline the permitting process for resource projects bore fruit for them in the election, and the party is strongly positioned to make gains in the next election. A few hundred votes in a handful of ridings that went against the BC Conservatives were the only thing that kept them from a majority government.
Pipeline decision will show what lessons Eby’s learned
Eby’s decision on PRGT will be an indicator of what lessons, if any, he has taken from the election and whether he’s listening to British Columbians beyond the ones who align with his agenda.
Business leaders have claimed that prolonged delays and changing goalposts have eroded investor confidence and cost the province billions in investment, along with thousands of jobs. PRGT offers a remedy. It’s not only a pathway to economic reconciliation for the Nisga’a, but could offer hope to other nations determined to become major players in B.C.’s economy.
Green-lighting the project will show he is an economic pragmatist who listens to resource-dependent communities, who wants to demonstrate B.C. is still open for business.
Under the NDP, B.C. mandated the province cut oil and gas emissions by 40 percent by 2030, and critics, in the Greens and his own party, have asserted that any new LNG projects will undermine those targets.
Rejecting the Prince Rupert pipeline would affirm that Eby is doubling down on his government’s climate goals and is willing to ignore and alienate rural communities to do so.
Eby must choose.
He’ll either help bridge the provincial rural-urban economic divide or align with the much narrower environmental activist wing of B.C. politics.
Regardless of his decision, the Premier will alienate people on one side or the other. The only question now is: which one?